Seriously, although I doubt that EY’s estimate of 20% holds for the general population, the clustering effects and “trans contagion” make me pretty convinced that the frequently quoted “0.3% of the population is trans” is way, way too low, at least if by “trans” we mean “would come out as trans under the right circumstances, and not regret it”.
At my rural Midwestern public high school, my graduating class of 70 people contained 3 who have since come out as trans, that I’m aware of. This doesn’t have the same kind of selection effects that Yudkowsky’s social circle does; a priori, I think there’s no reason to expect my graduating class to have more trans people than any other population in the country. And none of the three of us were related, so genetic explanations for clustering can be discounted.
If we take my graduating class as an experiment testing the null hypothesis "at most 0.3% of people are trans" we can reject the null hypothesis with p < 0.002. I know, I know that’s not how real science works, but… still.
0.3% has already been shown to be excessively low; the current lower bound is roughly 0.7% and predictaby increasing over time:
“based on two population-based surveys, one of 1,832 Flemish persons and one of 2,472 sexual minority individuals in Flanders. In the general population, gender ambivalence was present in 2.2 % of [AMAB]* and 1.9 % of [AFAB]** participants, whereas gender incongruence was found in 0.7 % of [AMAB] and 0.6 % of [AFAB participants]. In sexual minority individuals, the prevalence of gender ambivalence and gender incongruence was 1.8 and 0.9 % in [AMAB] and 4.1 and 2.1 % in [AFAB participants], respectively. With a current Flemish population of about 6 million, our results indicate a total of between 17,150 and 17,665 gender incongruent [AMAB people] and between 14,473 and 15,221 gender incongruent [AFAB people] in Flanders.”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25588709
3 months ago · 7 notes · source: unknought · .permalink
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socialjusticemunchkin reblogged this from unknought and added:0.3% has already been shown to be excessively low; the current lower bound is roughly 0.7% and predictaby increasing...
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